Basic probability and the concept of value

The secret to a successful life or career is being able to consistently make the right predictions. Whereas this is true, we both know that making correct predictions is not something you can do every time. There are plenty of times when you will make very wrong predictions and lose money from your bankroll. It is next to make correct predictions in esports betting because of the number of variables you have to deal with. There are simply just way too many variables involved and no one can be right all the time. Even the most successful professional gamblers make a lot of wrong predictions, but rely on other techniques to remain afloat in the game.

In this article, I will try to explain what value is and its relationship to probability.

Your hit rate

In sports betting, there is something called hit rate and it is very important. A hit rate refers to the number of bets that you get right or win compared to the total number of bets you place overall. The hit rate is usually expressed as a percentage. For example, if you win 10 bets out of 20 total bets placed, your hit rate will be 50%. That means that out of all the bets you place, you are likely to win half of them. The higher your hit rate, the more money you make from betting. To increase your hit rate, you will need to be more careful with how you select your bets. You should understand that not all bets are worth wagering on. You should only wager on games you know have a higher likelihood of wining you money.

Probability in sports betting

Sports betting and gambling in general are simply about probabilities. Basic probability is a very straight forward concept that shouldn’t be hard to understand. Probability simply provides a measure of how likely something is to happen and is usually expressed from in decimal numbers ranging between 0.0 and 1.0. a probability of 0 means that the event in question is impossible and cannot happen completely while a probability of 1.0 means that the event is certain to happen. Sometimes probability is expressed as a percentage.

You realize that we have been talking about basic probability. However, when it comes to sports probability that is where things become really complicated because calculating this probability is not a very easy thing to do. There are many factors involved in sports that make it impossible to calculate precise probability. As such, bookmakers simply approximate what they think are the chances of something happening and use that as the odds on various events.

Implied probability and expected value

Implied probability applies to sports and it refers to the likelihood of a certain sports event happening. This probability is arrived at by dividing 1 by the decimal odds. That means that’s in case a given team is given the odds of 5.0 to win a certain game, the probability of the team winning the game 0.8 or 80%. To be a good bettor, you have to understand implied probability well.

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